Morning Jot
Prediction watch Open Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Monday 13 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran War Spreads Across the Gulf as Hormuz Traffic Stalls

    In the 24 hours ending 13 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran war kept spreading across the Gulf. US forces carried out new wide strikes on coastal and western Iran.

    The US strikes hit several places in Khuzestan Province. The targets included areas around Ahvaz, Behbahan, Dezful, Andimeshk, Abadan, Omidiyeh, Mahshahr, and Shadegan.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, said the latest wave was complete. It said the strikes hit Iranian air defenses, coastal radar, missile and drone systems, and small boats.

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  2. Sunday 12 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Strikes Widen Across the Gulf as Ukraine Hits Syzran

    In the 24 hours ending 12 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran fight widened again across the Gulf. US Central Command said it struck about 140 Iranian military targets after another attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The latest US strikes hit missile and drone sites, naval assets, ammunition depots, communications networks, and coastal surveillance systems. The United States said it has now hit more than 300 Iranian military targets across three nights.

    Iran launched another wave against Bahrain and Kuwait. Sirens sounded in Bahrain, interceptions were reported, and thick smoke rose near the US Fifth Fleet base.

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  3. Saturday 11 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Ceasefire Strains as Hormuz Traffic Slows and Kyiv Hit

    In the 24 hours ending 11 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran ceasefire came under new pressure. Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, accused Washington of breaking the Islamabad agreement after new US sanctions on Iran.

    The agreement had said no new US sanctions would be imposed. Iran said both sides now needed “mutual compliance” for the deal to survive.

    Donald Trump, US president, gave Iran a new direct threat. He said the US military had orders to destroy targets across Iran if Iran tried to assassinate him.

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  4. Friday 10 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Strikes, Ukraine Drone Raids, and Hormuz Shipping Shifts

    In the 24 hours ending 10 July 07:30 UTC, the war around Iran spread into more direct strikes inside the country. Haqqani, governor of Konarak, said fighter jets hit an Iranian Navy military zone twice on Thursday evening.

    Iranian forces also recovered an unexploded warhead from a US cruise missile. The missile was described as built to destroy hardened underground targets.

    A shooting was reported near the Imam Reza Shrine. Attackers dressed as Iranian Army and Police personnel opened fire at a security checkpoint, and at least two Basij members were killed.

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  5. Thursday 9 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    The US-Iran war moved into a longer fight.

    In the 24 hours ending 9 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran war moved into a longer fight. Washington was preparing for a fire exchange with Iran that could last days or weeks.

    The United States struck 90 Iranian military targets in the latest wave. The targets included logistics sites, missile and drone storage, air defenses, coastal surveillance sites, and naval targets.

    Iran again attacked US-linked sites in the Gulf. Iranian forces targeted bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, including Ali Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan.

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  6. Wednesday 8 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    The United States expanded its war with Iran.

    In the 24 hours ending 8 July 07:30 UTC, the United States expanded its war with Iran. The US military hit more than 80 Iranian targets after Iran attacked commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

    The strikes hit air defenses, command networks, coastal radars, anti-ship missiles, and more than 60 IRGC small boats. The IRGC is Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, a major military force.

    Donald Trump, US president, approved the strikes while in Turkey for the NATO summit. He met Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, Pete Hegseth, secretary of war, and Scott Bessent, treasury secretary.

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  7. Tuesday 7 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran attacked commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.

    In the 24 hours ending 7 July 07:30 UTC, Iran attacked commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. A loaded LNG tanker was hit and caught fire during outbound transit.

    At least two missiles were fired at commercial ships in the area. One vessel was hit east of Limah, Oman. No casualties were reported at that time.

    Ukraine struck more energy targets inside Russian-held and Russian territory. In occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces hit two major power substations overnight. The strikes caused another wave of blackouts across the peninsula.

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  8. Monday 6 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Russia hit Kyiv with another large missile and drone attack.

    In the 24 hours ending 6 July 07:30 UTC, Russia hit Kyiv with another large missile and drone attack. At least nine people died, and 43 were injured, including two children.

    The attack damaged or destroyed at least 15 residential buildings. Rescuers searched high-rise rubble after a missile hit an apartment block.

    Poland raised air defenses and radar systems to maximum readiness. NATO aircraft were sent up because Russia was using long-range aviation against Ukraine.

    Ukraine struck the Kerch fuel and oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea again. Attack drones set the port facility on fire overnight.

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  9. Sunday 5 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukraine kept pressure on Russian supply lines.

    In the 24 hours ending 5 July 07:30 UTC, Ukraine kept pressure on Russian supply lines. A Ukrainian mid-range drone hit a Russian fuel tanker in southern Ukraine. The tanker burned on a major supply route.

    Ukraine’s strikes also deepened the power crisis in Russian-occupied Crimea. Attack drones hit nearly two dozen power substations this week. The damage caused daily power cuts and blackouts.

    Nighttime light data showed a sharp drop across Crimea compared with July 2025. That supports the picture of serious damage to the power grid.

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  10. Saturday 4 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukraine widened its long-range strike campaign inside Russia.

    In the 24 hours ending 4 July 07:30 UTC, Ukraine widened its long-range strike campaign inside Russia. Ukrainian drones hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Explosions continued, and smoke rose from the port area.

    Ukraine also sent Flamingo cruise missiles deep into central Russia. Smoke rose near Votkinsk, more than 800 miles from Ukraine. The likely target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a Russian ballistic missile producer.

    A Ukrainian missile attack also hit Belgorod again. The Luch power site burned after the strike. Power and water outages followed in the city.

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