Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Friday 28 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Reopens Uneasily as Europe Faces Missile and Troop Risks

    In the 24 hours ending 28 August at 07:30 UTC, US forces declared the Strait of Hormuz open. Admiral Brad Cooper, the US regional commander, said forces had cleared an international channel of mines. However, commercial traffic remained far below prewar levels. US allies also feared that mines still remained.

    Iran said ships could use a central channel if Washington met Tehran’s conditions. Qatar, Iran and Oman discussed a temporary route and a joint mine-clearing project. The White House said no negotiations were underway and its naval blockade would continue.

    continue briefing

  2. Thursday 27 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Stays Closed as Energy Strikes Escalate

    In the 24 hours ending 27 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed. Tehran demanded an end to the US naval blockade and fighting in Lebanon.

    Iran and Oman continued talks on a temporary shipping route. No agreement was final. Donald Trump, the US president, said 10 million oil barrels crossed the strait the previous day. Oil prices fell more than 3%.

    An unknown projectile struck another tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew extinguished a fire, and nobody was hurt.

    Russia’s Kstovo oil refinery shut completely after a Ukrainian drone attack caused major damage. All major Russian refineries owned by Lukoil were reported offline.

    continue briefing

  3. Wednesday 26 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Widens Iran Sanctions as Oman Floats Hormuz Corridor

    In the 24 hours ending 26 August at 07:30 UTC, the United States expanded its economic campaign against Iran. It sanctioned more than 60 people, companies and vessels tied to Iranian oil, nuclear and missile work.

    Washington warned that Iran’s trading partners could lose access to dollar-based finance. It spared major Chinese banks for now, despite China buying most Iranian oil exports. Iran threatened military and economic action, while China warned of retaliation.

    Oman proposed a temporary, jointly managed shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. The plan includes mine removal, traffic management and talks on a permanent route. The White House said no talks with Iran were underway or scheduled.

    continue briefing

  4. Tuesday 25 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Tanker Strikes and Tariff Threats Raise Global Tensions

    In the 24 hours ending 25 August at 07:30 UTC, an unknown projectile struck an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The blast disabled its engine and cut power. All crew members were safe.

    Another projectile hit a tanker near Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, causing a deck fire. The crew was safe, and responsibility remained unclear.

    Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, announced a stronger financial campaign against Iran. He threatened sanctions and loss of dollar access for countries supporting Tehran. Iran’s currency fell below two million rials per US dollar for the first time.

    continue briefing

  5. Monday 24 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Threatens Hormuz Oil Flows as Ukraine Strikes Russia

    In the 24 hours ending 24 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran threatened to stop all oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz. Mohsen Rezaee, a senior Iranian military adviser, said continued US economic pressure could trigger the action. He also warned countries against supporting the US campaign.

    Iran discovered more than 7.5 trillion cubic feet of gas in a field south of Fars province.

    Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief, will lead an official delegation to Tehran. The visit aims to strengthen cooperation and support regional security.

    continue briefing

  6. Sunday 23 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Signals Wider Security Ties as Trade and War Risks Rise

    In the 24 hours ending 23 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran allowed several Iraqi oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Baghdad had repeatedly sought permission through several diplomatic channels.

    Rezaei, an Iranian security official, warned countries against helping the US economic campaign. He said Iran would target their interests.

    Mehdi Rahimi, head of Iran’s parliamentary news agency, said Iran received an invitation to join a defence agreement. The agreement includes Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye.

    continue briefing

  7. Saturday 22 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Talks, Ukraine Strikes and Pressure on Global Markets

    In the 24 hours ending 22 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran and Oman discussed terms for renewed negotiations. The talks also covered reopening navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

    Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said Iran should end the war while negotiating from strength. The United States prepared tougher sanctions against countries trading with Tehran. China remains the main challenge because it buys about 90% of Iranian oil exports.

    Allied defence chiefs discussed supporting safe navigation through Hormuz. Any operation would involve interested countries and remain outside NATO’s formal structure.

    continue briefing

  8. Friday 21 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Pressures Iran as Ukraine Strikes Russian Energy Sites

    In the 24 hours ending 21 August at 07:30 UTC, Washington increased economic and maritime pressure on Iran. US forces redirected 67 commercial vessels and boarded two during blockade enforcement. They also disabled three vessels that did not follow orders.

    Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said Washington intended to collapse Iran’s government. Iran rejected claims that its government was near collapse. Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian lawmaker, proposed leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

    The United States also imposed more sanctions on Hezbollah, an Iran-backed armed group in Lebanon. The measures target ten people and a network accused of moving hundreds of millions of dollars.

    continue briefing

  9. Thursday 20 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Targets Iran as Strikes Reshape Global Flashpoints

    In the 24 hours ending 20 August at 07:30 UTC, Donald Trump, the US president, announced sweeping new economic action against Iran. The measures target oil smuggling, money transfers, currency exchanges, ship records and front companies. They also target foreign governments and businesses helping Iran. Trump urged US allies to join the campaign.

    The United States established a protected route through the Strait of Hormuz near Oman. Around 15 to 20 tankers use the route each night. They carry nearly 10 million barrels of oil under American protection. US strikes have damaged much of Iran’s maritime surveillance network.

    continue briefing

  10. Wednesday 19 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Talks End as Hormuz Crisis Drives Oil and Yields Higher

    In the 24 hours ending 19 August at 07:30 UTC, Donald Trump, the US president, ordered an end to diplomatic talks with Iran. He told his administration to seek Iran’s surrender through maximum economic pressure.

    Iran told mediators it would not accept a ceasefire but wanted the war to end. Qalibaf, Iran’s top negotiator, said Hormuz would remain closed until Washington accepted interim deal conditions.

    Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz new US territory. He claimed the waterway was open and all mines had been removed. Iran rejected his claim as a delusion.

    continue briefing