Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Sunday 19 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Iran for an Eighth Night as Attacks Spread

    In the 24 hours ending 19 July 07:30 UTC, US forces widened attacks on Iran for an eighth straight night.

    The earlier Iranian strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base killed two US service members. One US service member remained missing, and dozens more were wounded. The missiles also damaged helicopters and other crewed and uncrewed aircraft. Iran attacked American troops in Jordan four times over five days.

    US strikes hit coastal surveillance, air defenses, maritime systems, and missile and drone storage sites. They reached Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Sirik, Hajiabad, and areas southeast of Ahwaz. The attacks targeted Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They also hit Iranian forces tied to the deadly strike in Jordan.

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  2. Saturday 18 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Widens Gulf Attacks as US Strikes Hit Infrastructure

    In the 24 hours ending 18 July 07:30 UTC, Iran expanded its regional attacks as US strikes hit Iranian transport and communications.

    Iran attacked US bases and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months. Saudi forces intercepted nine Iranian drones after a ceasefire took effect.

    Two Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Iran also launched further attacks against Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting sirens and air defense action.

    US forces struck Iranian communications and transport infrastructure overnight. A US strike destroyed a road bridge near Bandar Abbas.

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  3. Friday 17 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Sixth Night of US Strikes Widens Iran-Gulf Conflict

    In the 24 hours ending 17 July 07:30 UTC, the US air campaign against Iran entered its sixth straight night. The new wave was the broadest and most intense of the renewed campaign.

    US forces hit coastal surveillance, air defenses, military supply sites, and maritime systems. A third US strike brought down the port control tower at Chabahar. US attacks also hit air and naval bases in Bushehr.

    Iran launched another large missile and drone attack on Bahrain. Air defenses intercepted incoming weapons, and debris fell in several areas.

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  4. Thursday 16 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Disables Tanker as Iran Blockade Intensifies

    In the 24 hours ending 16 July 07:30 UTC, the US blockade of Iran became more forceful.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, disabled the empty tanker Belma near Kharg Island. The ship had ignored repeated warnings and continued toward Iran’s main oil export terminal.

    A US aircraft fired Hellfire missiles and left the tanker unable to operate. It was the first commercial ship struck near Kharg Island during the blockade.

    US forces also completed another wave of attacks across southern Iran. Targets included command centres, air defenses, missiles, drones, and coastal surveillance sites.

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  5. Wednesday 15 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Threatens Iran’s Power Grid as Regional Strikes Intensify

    In the 24 hours ending 15 July 07:30 UTC, the United States sharply increased pressure on Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

    Donald Trump, US president, threatened to attack Iranian power plants and bridges next week. He said attacks would continue until he decided they were enough.

    Trump said he did not want negotiations now. However, he said Iran could prevent the planned attacks by returning to talks.

    Trump also refused to rule out a ground campaign in Iran. He did not confirm any plan to seize Kharg Island.

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  6. Tuesday 14 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Gulf Tanker Strikes Deepen Iran Shipping Crisis

    In the 24 hours ending 14 July 07:30 UTC, attacks on Gulf shipping caused the clearest new escalation.

    The United Arab Emirates said Iranian cruise missiles struck two of its tankers in Omani waters. One Indian crew member died, and eight people were wounded. Four suffered serious injuries. Both ships caught fire, but crews later extinguished the flames.

    A third tanker was hit near Qalhat, Oman, by an unknown projectile. Its crew was safe, and no pollution was found.

    Bahrain also faced another Iranian attack. Sirens sounded as air defenses responded to incoming weapons.

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  7. Monday 13 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran War Spreads Across the Gulf as Hormuz Traffic Stalls

    In the 24 hours ending 13 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran war kept spreading across the Gulf. US forces carried out new wide strikes on coastal and western Iran.

    The US strikes hit several places in Khuzestan Province. The targets included areas around Ahvaz, Behbahan, Dezful, Andimeshk, Abadan, Omidiyeh, Mahshahr, and Shadegan.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, said the latest wave was complete. It said the strikes hit Iranian air defenses, coastal radar, missile and drone systems, and small boats.

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  8. Sunday 12 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Strikes Widen Across the Gulf as Ukraine Hits Syzran

    In the 24 hours ending 12 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran fight widened again across the Gulf. US Central Command said it struck about 140 Iranian military targets after another attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

    The latest US strikes hit missile and drone sites, naval assets, ammunition depots, communications networks, and coastal surveillance systems. The United States said it has now hit more than 300 Iranian military targets across three nights.

    Iran launched another wave against Bahrain and Kuwait. Sirens sounded in Bahrain, interceptions were reported, and thick smoke rose near the US Fifth Fleet base.

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  9. Saturday 11 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Ceasefire Strains as Hormuz Traffic Slows and Kyiv Hit

    In the 24 hours ending 11 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran ceasefire came under new pressure. Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, accused Washington of breaking the Islamabad agreement after new US sanctions on Iran.

    The agreement had said no new US sanctions would be imposed. Iran said both sides now needed “mutual compliance” for the deal to survive.

    Donald Trump, US president, gave Iran a new direct threat. He said the US military had orders to destroy targets across Iran if Iran tried to assassinate him.

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  10. Friday 10 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Strikes, Ukraine Drone Raids, and Hormuz Shipping Shifts

    In the 24 hours ending 10 July 07:30 UTC, the war around Iran spread into more direct strikes inside the country. Haqqani, governor of Konarak, said fighter jets hit an Iranian Navy military zone twice on Thursday evening.

    Iranian forces also recovered an unexploded warhead from a US cruise missile. The missile was described as built to destroy hardened underground targets.

    A shooting was reported near the Imam Reza Shrine. Attackers dressed as Iranian Army and Police personnel opened fire at a security checkpoint, and at least two Basij members were killed.

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