Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Saturday 8 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Talks Drag On as Oil, War and Market Risks Build

    In the 24 hours ending 8 August at 07:30 UTC, Hormuz talks continued without final approval. Donald Trump, the US president, said negotiations were moving forward. Iran still sought control over ship entry, new fees and added restrictions. Brent crude rose above $83 a barrel.

    ADNOC, an oil and gas company, said attacks had hit 15 of its vessels. Three attacks happened this week. The attacks killed one crew member and injured 20. Higher insurance and freight costs have discouraged some ships from entering the Persian Gulf.

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  2. Friday 7 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Corridor Plans Advance as Gulf Tensions Persist

    In the 24 hours ending 7 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran and Oman prepared to announce a Hormuz shipping corridor. Donald Trump, the US president, said an Iran deal and an end to the war could come soon.

    An Iranian draft law would tighten traffic rules across the Strait of Hormuz. It would ban vessels linked to hostile states and impose fines reaching 20% of cargo value. Iran also sought fees worth 5% to 7% of cargo value.

    The proposed route would initially divide incoming and outgoing ships between Iranian and Omani waters. All traffic could later move into a central corridor. Two explosions also shook buildings near Qeshm Island, but authorities had not established their cause.

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  3. Thursday 6 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Draft Nears Approval as Ukraine Strikes Russia

    In the 24 hours ending 6 August at 07:30 UTC, a temporary Hormuz deal moved closer to final approval. Iranian and Omani negotiators completed a draft, but Iran’s supreme leader must approve it.

    The deal could create a shipping route lasting two to four months. Iran said the agreement alone would not make the Strait of Hormuz safe. Tehran also denied holding direct talks with the United States.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said talks were going well. He warned Iran of heavy attacks if it withdrew. Iran again threatened Gulf energy sites if US attacks resumed.

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  4. Wednesday 5 August 2026 12:10 UTC

    Hormuz Deal Nears as Shipping Risks Shadow the Strait

    In the period ending 5 August at 12:10 UTC, the United States, Iran and Oman moved closer to a temporary Hormuz deal. Draft terms would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and support renewed nuclear talks. Donald Trump, the US president, said an agreement could come within 48 hours. However, no direct talks are booked, and no final agenda exists.

    Iran wants to control inbound traffic through Hormuz, while Oman would coordinate ships leaving the strait. Tehran also wants transit fees and power to stop vessels. Those demands remain the main dispute with Washington. Iran rejected claims of an immediate full reopening. It said alleged US violations could keep the strait closed. Iran may allow European teams to clear mines, but final security guarantees remain absent.

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  5. Tuesday 4 August 2026 08:00 UTC

    US-Iran Talks Stall as Hormuz Tensions Deepen

    In the 24 hours ending 4 August at 08:00 UTC, promised US-Iran talks did not begin, and planned US strikes remained paused.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said private discussions continued and Arab leaders had urged him not to attack Iran. He called this Tehran’s last chance to sign a deal. Iran denied any talks or planned delegations. It said only separate negotiations with Oman on shipping were continuing.

    Iran rejected a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before the wider conflict ends. It is seeking a temporary safe route through the strait with Oman. Trump said the United States controlled the waterway and could reopen it within a day. Forty-four commercial ships followed US blockade directions and changed course. Another cargo ship was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman.

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  6. Monday 3 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran strikes paused ahead of Hormuz talks

    In the 24 hours ending 3 August at 07:30 UTC, planned US strikes on Iran remained paused.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said new talks with Iran would begin Monday afternoon. The talks will cover the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. Trump warned that US forces remained ready to strike if talks failed.

    Iran denied requesting the pause and said its forces remained ready. Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, warned that any new attack would bring a similar response. Saudi Arabia backed diplomacy, but the United Arab Emirates favored stronger US pressure.

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  7. Sunday 2 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Calls Off Iran Strike as Conditional Deal Takes Shape

    In the 24 hours ending 2 August at 07:30 UTC, Donald Trump, the US president, canceled a planned attack on Iran. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to step back. The cancellation depends on reaching a deal. Trump said its main terms were agreed.

    The deal would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear threat. Israel also joined the commitment. Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, urged Trump to avoid further attacks.

    Before the cancellation, Iran threatened energy sites across the region. It said any US or Israeli attack would bring a decisive response. US embassies advised Americans to prepare for cancelled flights and closed airspace.

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  8. Saturday 1 August 2026 08:00 UTC

    US Weighs Iran Energy Strikes as Global Risks Mount

    In the period ending 1 August at 08:00 UTC, the United States and Israel prepared possible strikes on Iranian energy sites. Donald Trump, the US president, was seriously considering the plan but had not approved it. Attacks could begin this weekend and last several days.

    Iran threatened energy sites across the Middle East if its own facilities are hit. Kuwaiti air defences destroyed several hostile drones, likely from Iran. Falling debris caused some damage. Fresh Iranian drones entered Kuwaiti airspace early on 1 August.

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  9. Friday 31 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hamas Accepts Disarmament Under New Gaza Plan

    In the 24 hours ending 31 July 07:30 UTC, Hamas agreed to disarm under a new Gaza plan.

    Donald Trump, the US president, announced the agreement covering Hamas and other armed groups. Hamas confirmed its acceptance, but Israel had not commented.

    The plan calls for disarmament and phased Israeli withdrawals from Gaza. An international force would work with Palestinian police under a new Palestinian government.

    The US naval blockade of Iran redirected 30 commercial ships. US forces boarded two ships and disabled two others that allegedly ignored orders.

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  10. Thursday 30 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Iran as Russian Missile Hits Poland

    In the 24 hours ending 30 July 07:30 UTC, US forces resumed large-scale attacks on Iran.

    US Central Command, the regional military command, struck dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard sites. The targets included command centres, weapons facilities, coastal defences, and maritime forces. The United States said it was responding to Iran’s missile attack on US forces in Jordan.

    Powerful explosions also struck Ahvaz in southwest Iran. Residents described the attacks as more intense than those in March.

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