Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Tuesday 18 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Ship Strike Deepens Pressure as Iran Talks Continue

    In the 24 hours ending 18 August at 07:30 UTC, another cargo vessel was struck in the Strait of Hormuz. The engine room was damaged, and one crew member was injured. Oman’s coast guard assisted the remaining crew. Iran also seized a UAE-owned tanker.

    Iran said a shipping agreement with Oman was close. The plan could reopen Hormuz without fees for an unspecified period. However, Iran warned of wider escalation if diplomacy with Washington fails.

    Donald Trump, the US president, claimed the United States controls Hormuz and keeps it open. His energy secretary said regional oil flows had not fully recovered. Trump also threatened military action if Oman blocked negotiations with Iran.

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  2. Monday 17 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Three More Vessels Struck as US-Iran Deadline Expires

    In the 24 hours ending 17 August at 07:30 UTC, three more vessels were struck while crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Two were in Omani waters. No injuries occurred, and all three vessels continued their journeys.

    The US-Iran ceasefire deadline expired after 60 days. Iran’s army chief, Amir Hatami, offered $30,000 for capturing or killing any American soldier.

    Donald Trump, the US president, ordered fewer joint military exercises with South Korea. He cited his strong relationship with Kim Jong Un, the North Korean leader.

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  3. Sunday 16 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Accusations Rise as Ukraine Strikes Moscow Logistics

    In the 24 hours ending 16 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran faced another accusation over attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE said Iran attacked a third ADNOC vessel within one week. ADNOC is Abu Dhabi’s state oil company. No injuries were reported.

    The UAE urged Tehran to stop the attacks and fully reopen Hormuz. It also warned that it would defend its shipping rights and national interests.

    Iran accused Qatar of holding three military pilots missing since March. Qatar said their aircraft entered its airspace and ignored contact attempts. Qatari forces then took defensive action. Search teams found one pilot’s remains, but Iran did not answer an offer to return them.

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  4. Saturday 15 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Blockade Holds as US-Iran Standoff Deepens

    In the 24 hours ending 15 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz blocked. Only two vessels crossed Friday, and no crude oil shipments passed through. Iran said the closure would continue until Washington accepted its conditions.

    Two vessels operated by ADNOC, Abu Dhabi’s state oil company, were attacked in the strait. No crew members were injured. It remains unclear whether a separate tanker drone strike involved one of these vessels.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said he may declare Hormuz US territory. He called gasoline prices 29% above last year’s level a necessary cost of confronting Iran. Iran said it alone could decide whether to open the waterway.

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  5. Friday 14 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Escalates Iran Pressure as Reaper Losses Mount

    In the 24 hours ending 14 August at 07:30 UTC, the United States increased pressure on Iran. Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, said Washington is preparing unprecedented economic isolation measures. Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, said the blockade can continue as long as needed. Iran said no vessel can safely cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.

    Brad Cooper, the head of US Central Command, supports renewed strikes against Iran. He gave this position to Israeli officials. The command also plans its first multinational attack-drone force. US and regional crews would operate drones in the air, on water and underwater.

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  6. Thursday 13 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Shipping Stalls as Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Sites

    In the 24 hours ending 13 August at 07:30 UTC, shipping through Hormuz remained near a standstill. Only 14 vessels crossed on Tuesday, compared with about 120 before the war. Eleven used an Iranian-approved route. None used the traditional central passage.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said America had total control of the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested that the United States could keep control of the strait. Iran denied that talks had extended its 60-day ceasefire with Washington.

    Iran said negotiations had made no progress. It accused Washington of breaking an interim agreement shortly after signing it. Hormuz remains a central dispute between both sides.

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  7. Wednesday 12 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed as US Missile Stocks Tighten

    In the 24 hours ending 12 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran rejected an early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Rezaei, Iran’s security council secretary, said closure would continue until Washington accepts Iranian conditions.

    Iran wants the war to end and frozen funds released. An Iran-Oman shipping agreement would remain separate from reopening the strait. Qatar said those talks had reached an advanced stage.

    About nine million barrels of oil now pass through Hormuz each day. This remains far below the level before the war. The US raised its 2026 Brent oil forecast from $82 to $87.

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  8. Tuesday 11 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Tensions Deepen as Rival Compensation Demands Grow

    In the 24 hours ending 11 August at 07:30 UTC, tensions over Hormuz deepened as both sides added new compensation demands. Donald Trump, the US president, said the United States could still launch a major escalation against Iran. He also said US forces had cleared mines throughout the strait.

    Trump ordered US negotiators to demand Iranian compensation in future talks. He cited Americans killed or injured by Iran and Iran-backed groups. Iran also demands compensation from Washington for damage caused during the war.

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  9. Monday 10 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Leans on Iran Blockade as Hormuz Talks Remain Stalled

    In the 24 hours ending 10 August at 07:30 UTC, US pressure on Iran focused on economic damage. Donald Trump, the US president, said he was avoiding major new military operations. He wants the naval blockade to weaken Iran’s economy.

    Trump could end the war without a nuclear agreement if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Talks remain stalled over Iran’s demands. Tehran wants the blockade and war ended, sanctions removed and frozen funds released. It also seeks a US military withdrawal and payment for war damage.

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  10. Sunday 9 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Sets Broad Terms as Hormuz Shipping Talks Near Deal

    In the 24 hours ending 9 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran added broad conditions to any Hormuz reopening. These demands include ending sanctions and the naval blockade. Iran also wants frozen assets released and war damages paid. It demanded an end to regional fighting and threats against Iran.

    Iran said a shipping agreement with Oman was very close. However, the United States wants unrestricted commercial shipping before lifting its blockade. These opposing demands leave the final agreement uncertain.

    A vessel was struck and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew put out the fire, and nobody was injured. The Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group in Yemen, claimed an attack on the Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia. Firefighters tackled a blaze there.

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