Morning Jot
Prediction watch Open Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Thursday 23 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US B-1 Bombers Strike Iran on Twelfth Night of Attacks

    In the 24 hours ending 23 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a twelfth straight night.

    The strikes hit southern and western Iran, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Jask, Kermanshah, Ahvaz, Dezful, and Andimeshk. They targeted maritime systems, missile and drone stores, coastal surveillance sites, and air defenses. A strike also hit the area around the Shalamcheh passenger crossing on the Iraqi border.

    US B-1 long-range bombers struck targets run by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, an elite military force. This was the first US bomber mission against Iran since April.

    continue briefing

  2. Wednesday 22 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Opens Talks as Guard Claims Regional Strikes

    In the 24 hours ending 22 July 07:30 UTC, Iran opened talks with mediators while claiming new regional attacks.

    An Iranian official began talks with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. No details about the talks were available.

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, an elite military force, claimed attacks in Bahrain and Jordan. It said it struck Amazon data infrastructure in Bahrain. It also claimed damage to US military equipment at a base in Jordan. These claims lacked independent confirmation.

    Warning sirens sounded across Bahrain during the morning.

    continue briefing

  3. Tuesday 21 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran War Expands Across Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

    In the 24 hours ending 21 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a tenth straight night.

    US strikes hit command centres, air defenses, and missile and drone launch sites. Attacks also hit Chabahar, Konarak, Isfahan, Shiraz, Sirik, and a missile base near Kerman.

    Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, declared that Iran was now fighting a full-scale war.

    Iran said it targeted US missile systems at Arifjan base in Kuwait. Iran used surface-to-surface missiles in the attack.

    Iran attacked the Kuwaiti-owned tanker Kaifan in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew abandoned the burning ship near Oman. Iran also claimed an attack on a second vessel.

    continue briefing

  4. Monday 20 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Reach Tabriz as Iran Targets Kuwait

    In the 24 hours ending 20 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a ninth straight night.

    The attacks reached Tabriz in the northwest and Khorramabad in western Iran. Both cities had seen little fighting during this campaign. Missile fields near Tabriz caught fire after US strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard operates those fields. Further attacks hit Bushehr and the coastal city of Konarak.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, targeted command centres, air defenses, coastal surveillance sites, and communications networks. It aimed to reduce Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

    continue briefing

  5. Sunday 19 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Iran for an Eighth Night as Attacks Spread

    In the 24 hours ending 19 July 07:30 UTC, US forces widened attacks on Iran for an eighth straight night.

    The earlier Iranian strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base killed two US service members. One US service member remained missing, and dozens more were wounded. The missiles also damaged helicopters and other crewed and uncrewed aircraft. Iran attacked American troops in Jordan four times over five days.

    US strikes hit coastal surveillance, air defenses, maritime systems, and missile and drone storage sites. They reached Bandar Abbas, Qeshm Island, Sirik, Hajiabad, and areas southeast of Ahwaz. The attacks targeted Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They also hit Iranian forces tied to the deadly strike in Jordan.

    continue briefing

  6. Saturday 18 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Widens Gulf Attacks as US Strikes Hit Infrastructure

    In the 24 hours ending 18 July 07:30 UTC, Iran expanded its regional attacks as US strikes hit Iranian transport and communications.

    Iran attacked US bases and infrastructure in Saudi Arabia for the first time in four months. Saudi forces intercepted nine Iranian drones after a ceasefire took effect.

    Two Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Iran also launched further attacks against Bahrain and Kuwait, prompting sirens and air defense action.

    US forces struck Iranian communications and transport infrastructure overnight. A US strike destroyed a road bridge near Bandar Abbas.

    continue briefing

  7. Friday 17 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Sixth Night of US Strikes Widens Iran-Gulf Conflict

    In the 24 hours ending 17 July 07:30 UTC, the US air campaign against Iran entered its sixth straight night. The new wave was the broadest and most intense of the renewed campaign.

    US forces hit coastal surveillance, air defenses, military supply sites, and maritime systems. A third US strike brought down the port control tower at Chabahar. US attacks also hit air and naval bases in Bushehr.

    Iran launched another large missile and drone attack on Bahrain. Air defenses intercepted incoming weapons, and debris fell in several areas.

    continue briefing

  8. Thursday 16 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Disables Tanker as Iran Blockade Intensifies

    In the 24 hours ending 16 July 07:30 UTC, the US blockade of Iran became more forceful.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, disabled the empty tanker Belma near Kharg Island. The ship had ignored repeated warnings and continued toward Iran’s main oil export terminal.

    A US aircraft fired Hellfire missiles and left the tanker unable to operate. It was the first commercial ship struck near Kharg Island during the blockade.

    US forces also completed another wave of attacks across southern Iran. Targets included command centres, air defenses, missiles, drones, and coastal surveillance sites.

    continue briefing

  9. Wednesday 15 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Threatens Iran’s Power Grid as Regional Strikes Intensify

    In the 24 hours ending 15 July 07:30 UTC, the United States sharply increased pressure on Iran’s civilian infrastructure.

    Donald Trump, US president, threatened to attack Iranian power plants and bridges next week. He said attacks would continue until he decided they were enough.

    Trump said he did not want negotiations now. However, he said Iran could prevent the planned attacks by returning to talks.

    Trump also refused to rule out a ground campaign in Iran. He did not confirm any plan to seize Kharg Island.

    continue briefing

  10. Tuesday 14 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Gulf Tanker Strikes Deepen Iran Shipping Crisis

    In the 24 hours ending 14 July 07:30 UTC, attacks on Gulf shipping caused the clearest new escalation.

    The United Arab Emirates said Iranian cruise missiles struck two of its tankers in Omani waters. One Indian crew member died, and eight people were wounded. Four suffered serious injuries. Both ships caught fire, but crews later extinguished the flames.

    A third tanker was hit near Qalhat, Oman, by an unknown projectile. Its crew was safe, and no pollution was found.

    Bahrain also faced another Iranian attack. Sirens sounded as air defenses responded to incoming weapons.

    continue briefing