Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Monday 7 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Traffic Recovers as Ukraine Diplomacy Intensifies

    In the 24 hours ending 7 September at 07:30 UTC, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover.

    The US military said it helped 1,600 commercial ships cross the strait. Those ships carried about 800 million barrels of oil. It also redirected 92 ships away from Iranian ports. US forces disabled three vessels and boarded two others.

    Iran blamed the United States for shipping problems and higher energy prices. Tehran accused Washington of starting the conflict and passing its costs to other countries.

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  2. Sunday 6 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Fighting Resumes Around the Strait of Hormuz

    In the 24 hours ending 6 September at 07:30 UTC, US-Iran fighting resumed around the Strait of Hormuz.

    US forces destroyed three Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles toward two US warships. US video showed the Kylo tanker burning and sinking. Iran said no crew members died.

    Iran claimed it later attacked several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. It also claimed attacks against US warships, but America did not confirm them. Iran threatened wider attacks if US operations continued.

    Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, discussed peace efforts with Mohamed bin Zayed, the United Arab Emirates president. Their talks followed new US sanctions against Iran-linked banking networks in both countries.

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  3. Saturday 5 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Escalation Risk Rises as Hormuz Pressure Looms

    In the 24 hours ending 5 September at 07:30 UTC, US intelligence assessed that Iran may consider a major escalation. Tehran believes it can sustain the war for months. It may use the Strait of Hormuz to pressure America before its midterm elections.

    No new US-Iran attacks were confirmed overnight. Pakistan, Qatar and Oman continued efforts to restart negotiations. Oil remained near $91 a barrel after its largest weekly rise since July.

    Donald Trump, the US president, is developing a postwar plan to contain Iran. The unfinished plan includes regional security guarantees and new agreements between Israel and Arab states.

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  4. Friday 4 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Fire Pauses as Drones Strike Near Sochi

    In the 24 hours ending 4 September at 07:30 UTC, fighting between America and Iran paused. JD Vance, the US vice president, said no active shooting was taking place.

    Iran said recent US strikes killed at least 18 people and injured 142. The injured included 44 children and 61 women.

    The US military began reviewing civilian deaths at an Iranian wedding. The strike killed four people and injured 53. Officials said a communications tower was the intended target.

    The Pentagon formally ended Operation Epic Fury in May. It later told military leaders to stop using that name for continuing Iran operations.

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  5. Thursday 3 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Weighs Iran War End as Hormuz Traffic Rebounds

    In the 24 hours ending 3 September at 07:30 UTC, Donald Trump, the US president, privately discussed declaring the Iran war over. Hours earlier, he warned that America could strike Iran again soon.

    Trump claimed US strikes had damaged Iran’s ability to identify ships in the Strait of Hormuz. He also suggested claiming the strait as US territory, but gave no practical plan.

    Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said Israel would defeat and remove Iran’s government. Iran’s currency then fell to a record low beyond 2.2 million rials per US dollar.

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  6. Wednesday 2 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Strikes Threaten Hormuz Shipping and Oil Markets

    In the 24 hours ending 2 September at 07:30 UTC, US and Iranian forces traded their largest strikes in weeks.

    US forces struck at least 100 targets in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. Targets included air defences, radar, communications, mine systems, ships and coastal facilities. Two Iranian government tankers were also hit.

    Iranian officials said strikes hit a wedding and several southern coastal areas. They said four or five people died, while dozens suffered injuries.

    Donald Trump, the US president, threatened much heavier attacks if Iran responded again. He claimed the operation reduced threats to commercial shipping for at least one month.

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  7. Tuesday 1 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Tanker Hit as Strait of Hormuz Traffic Falls 80%

    In the 24 hours ending 1 September at 07:30 UTC, another tanker was hit near Oman. Three projectiles struck the vessel as it left the Strait of Hormuz. No deaths or environmental damage were recorded.

    Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen more than 80% since the war began. Tanker transport costs have reached record levels. Donald Trump, the US president, said about 30 ships now cross each night.

    Trump is considering further limited strikes near the strait. The proposed attacks would target Iranian radar, air defences and anti-ship missiles. He promised a strong response to Iran’s recent missile attack on US forces in Jordan.

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  8. Monday 31 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Strikes Escalate as Hormuz Tanker Is Hit

    In the 24 hours ending 31 August at 07:30 UTC, US forces struck two Iranian rocket-launch sites on Larak Island. The launchers were being prepared to send sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.

    Iran responded with about 12 ballistic missiles aimed mainly at two airbases in Jordan. Jordan said its forces intercepted eight missiles. The United States said the attack caused no significant damage.

    A tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz was hit near Oman. Nobody was hurt, and no pollution was detected. Iran said two naval mines struck the vessel and caused a fire.

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  9. Sunday 30 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian Refinery and Airbases

    In the 24 hours ending 30 August at 07:30 UTC, Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Kirishi oil refinery near Saint Petersburg. A production unit caught fire at one of Russia’s largest refineries.

    Ukrainian drones also struck Yeysk and Millerovo airbases in Russia. Large fires and secondary explosions followed at Yeysk. Another attack caused a large fire at an airbase in occupied Crimea.

    Ukrainian intelligence said the Kremlin ordered planning for a new attack from Belarus toward Kyiv and Chernihiv. However, Ukraine saw no Russian forces gathering for such an operation.

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  10. Saturday 29 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Standoff and Missile Strain Lead the Overnight Brief

    In the 24 hours ending 29 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran rejected US claims that the Strait of Hormuz was open. Iran said vessels still needed its approval to cross.

    Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, said Iran sold about 90 million oil barrels during the interim deal. He also offered cooperation with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other regional countries.

    The Iran war has severely reduced US missile stocks in Europe. Patriot and ATACMS supplies have fallen beyond critical levels. The United States also moved air defence systems from Europe to the Middle East.

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