Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Thursday 9 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    The US-Iran war moved into a longer fight.

    In the 24 hours ending 9 July 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran war moved into a longer fight. Washington was preparing for a fire exchange with Iran that could last days or weeks.

    The United States struck 90 Iranian military targets in the latest wave. The targets included logistics sites, missile and drone storage, air defenses, coastal surveillance sites, and naval targets.

    Iran again attacked US-linked sites in the Gulf. Iranian forces targeted bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, including Ali Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan.

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  2. Wednesday 8 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    The United States expanded its war with Iran.

    In the 24 hours ending 8 July 07:30 UTC, the United States expanded its war with Iran. The US military hit more than 80 Iranian targets after Iran attacked commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz.

    The strikes hit air defenses, command networks, coastal radars, anti-ship missiles, and more than 60 IRGC small boats. The IRGC is Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps, a major military force.

    Donald Trump, US president, approved the strikes while in Turkey for the NATO summit. He met Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, Pete Hegseth, secretary of war, and Scott Bessent, treasury secretary.

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  3. Tuesday 7 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran attacked commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.

    In the 24 hours ending 7 July 07:30 UTC, Iran attacked commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. A loaded LNG tanker was hit and caught fire during outbound transit.

    At least two missiles were fired at commercial ships in the area. One vessel was hit east of Limah, Oman. No casualties were reported at that time.

    Ukraine struck more energy targets inside Russian-held and Russian territory. In occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces hit two major power substations overnight. The strikes caused another wave of blackouts across the peninsula.

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  4. Monday 6 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Russia hit Kyiv with another large missile and drone attack.

    In the 24 hours ending 6 July 07:30 UTC, Russia hit Kyiv with another large missile and drone attack. At least nine people died, and 43 were injured, including two children.

    The attack damaged or destroyed at least 15 residential buildings. Rescuers searched high-rise rubble after a missile hit an apartment block.

    Poland raised air defenses and radar systems to maximum readiness. NATO aircraft were sent up because Russia was using long-range aviation against Ukraine.

    Ukraine struck the Kerch fuel and oil terminal in Russian-occupied Crimea again. Attack drones set the port facility on fire overnight.

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  5. Sunday 5 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukraine kept pressure on Russian supply lines.

    In the 24 hours ending 5 July 07:30 UTC, Ukraine kept pressure on Russian supply lines. A Ukrainian mid-range drone hit a Russian fuel tanker in southern Ukraine. The tanker burned on a major supply route.

    Ukraine’s strikes also deepened the power crisis in Russian-occupied Crimea. Attack drones hit nearly two dozen power substations this week. The damage caused daily power cuts and blackouts.

    Nighttime light data showed a sharp drop across Crimea compared with July 2025. That supports the picture of serious damage to the power grid.

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  6. Saturday 4 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukraine widened its long-range strike campaign inside Russia.

    In the 24 hours ending 4 July 07:30 UTC, Ukraine widened its long-range strike campaign inside Russia. Ukrainian drones hit the St. Petersburg oil terminal. Explosions continued, and smoke rose from the port area.

    Ukraine also sent Flamingo cruise missiles deep into central Russia. Smoke rose near Votkinsk, more than 800 miles from Ukraine. The likely target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a Russian ballistic missile producer.

    A Ukrainian missile attack also hit Belgorod again. The Luch power site burned after the strike. Power and water outages followed in the city.

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