Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Wednesday 29 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Ends Attack Pause With Missile Strike on US Forces

    In the 24 hours ending 29 July 07:30 UTC, Iran ended the pause in direct attacks. It launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US forces in Jordan. US defences intercepted every missile.

    US and Saudi forces then struck Iranian-backed militia sites in eastern Iraq. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had directed over 30 drone attacks during the previous 72 hours. The drones targeted Saudi infrastructure.

    Iran is expected to receive up to 400 Chinese air defence missiles within weeks. Soldiers can carry and fire these missiles from their shoulders.

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  2. Tuesday 28 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iranian drones strike northern Iraq as direct US attacks pause

    In the 24 hours ending 28 July 07:30 UTC, Iran launched a large drone attack on northern Iraq.

    The drones targeted Kurdish areas, including Erbil, Koya, and Soran. US forces shot down an Iranian attack drone over Erbil. Other drones were also intercepted.

    Direct US-Iran attacks remained paused. Donald Trump, the US president, said talks with Iran were continuing. Iran warned that it viewed the US naval blockade as an escalation.

    Ukraine launched a large drone attack across Russia. A logistics warehouse near Moscow was destroyed by fire.

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  3. Monday 27 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US and Iran Edge Toward Ceasefire as Ukraine Strikes Crimea

    In the 24 hours ending 27 July 07:30 UTC, US and Iranian forces moved closer to a ceasefire.

    Both sides passed 48 hours without reported attacks. Iran said talks continued through mediators. Donald Trump, the US president, said he was giving diplomacy a chance.

    Admiral Brad Cooper, the US regional military commander, advised ending the limited bombing campaign. He said strikes had badly reduced Iran’s ability to attack shipping. Most planned targets had already been hit. Attacking the remaining targets would require renewed major combat.

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  4. Sunday 26 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Pauses Wider Iran Strikes as Crimea Power Crisis Deepens

    In the 24 hours ending 26 July 07:30 UTC, the United States paused plans to expand strikes on Iran.

    Donald Trump, the US president, delayed larger attacks after military leaders warned about shrinking air defence missile stocks. US forces then passed a second straight night without striking Iran. Diplomacy and economic pressure remained possible.

    US forces kept the blockade of Iran in place. They have redirected 12 commercial ships, disabled two, and boarded two others.

    Ukrainian drones hit another major power station and substation in Russian-occupied Crimea. Earlier strikes also hit 19 energy sites across the peninsula.

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  5. Saturday 25 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Saudi-Houthi Fighting Spreads Across the Red Sea

    In the 24 hours ending 25 July 07:30 UTC, fighting spread between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis.

    The Houthis, Yemen’s armed group, struck the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan. Large smoke clouds rose over the site. It was their first attack on a Saudi refinery in four years.

    The Houthis also struck the Saudi tanker NCC MASA in the Red Sea. The ship suffered damage. It was the third Saudi vessel attacked this week.

    Saudi Arabia then struck communication sites in Hodeidah and on Kamaran Island in Yemen.

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  6. Friday 24 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Rejects Ceasefire as US Strikes Enter Thirteenth Night

    In the 24 hours ending 24 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a thirteenth straight night.

    The strikes hit missile launchers, small boats, and targets across western Iran. Explosions were reported in more than twelve Iranian cities. The United States said the campaign aimed to protect commercial shipping.

    Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, the US president. Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq’s prime minister, delivered the offer after visiting the White House. Iran refused because the proposal left control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

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  7. Thursday 23 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US B-1 Bombers Strike Iran on Twelfth Night of Attacks

    In the 24 hours ending 23 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a twelfth straight night.

    The strikes hit southern and western Iran, including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Jask, Kermanshah, Ahvaz, Dezful, and Andimeshk. They targeted maritime systems, missile and drone stores, coastal surveillance sites, and air defenses. A strike also hit the area around the Shalamcheh passenger crossing on the Iraqi border.

    US B-1 long-range bombers struck targets run by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, an elite military force. This was the first US bomber mission against Iran since April.

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  8. Wednesday 22 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Opens Talks as Guard Claims Regional Strikes

    In the 24 hours ending 22 July 07:30 UTC, Iran opened talks with mediators while claiming new regional attacks.

    An Iranian official began talks with mediators in Pakistan on Tuesday. No details about the talks were available.

    Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, an elite military force, claimed attacks in Bahrain and Jordan. It said it struck Amazon data infrastructure in Bahrain. It also claimed damage to US military equipment at a base in Jordan. These claims lacked independent confirmation.

    Warning sirens sounded across Bahrain during the morning.

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  9. Tuesday 21 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran War Expands Across Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

    In the 24 hours ending 21 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a tenth straight night.

    US strikes hit command centres, air defenses, and missile and drone launch sites. Attacks also hit Chabahar, Konarak, Isfahan, Shiraz, Sirik, and a missile base near Kerman.

    Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s president, declared that Iran was now fighting a full-scale war.

    Iran said it targeted US missile systems at Arifjan base in Kuwait. Iran used surface-to-surface missiles in the attack.

    Iran attacked the Kuwaiti-owned tanker Kaifan in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew abandoned the burning ship near Oman. Iran also claimed an attack on a second vessel.

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  10. Monday 20 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Reach Tabriz as Iran Targets Kuwait

    In the 24 hours ending 20 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a ninth straight night.

    The attacks reached Tabriz in the northwest and Khorramabad in western Iran. Both cities had seen little fighting during this campaign. Missile fields near Tabriz caught fire after US strikes. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard operates those fields. Further attacks hit Bushehr and the coastal city of Konarak.

    US Central Command, the US military command for the region, targeted command centres, air defenses, coastal surveillance sites, and communications networks. It aimed to reduce Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

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