Morning Jot
Prediction watch Open Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Sunday 2 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Calls Off Iran Strike as Conditional Deal Takes Shape

    In the 24 hours ending 2 August at 07:30 UTC, Donald Trump, the US president, canceled a planned attack on Iran. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to step back. The cancellation depends on reaching a deal. Trump said its main terms were agreed.

    The deal would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear threat. Israel also joined the commitment. Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, urged Trump to avoid further attacks.

    Before the cancellation, Iran threatened energy sites across the region. It said any US or Israeli attack would bring a decisive response. US embassies advised Americans to prepare for cancelled flights and closed airspace.

    continue briefing

  2. Saturday 1 August 2026 08:00 UTC

    US Weighs Iran Energy Strikes as Global Risks Mount

    In the period ending 1 August at 08:00 UTC, the United States and Israel prepared possible strikes on Iranian energy sites. Donald Trump, the US president, was seriously considering the plan but had not approved it. Attacks could begin this weekend and last several days.

    Iran threatened energy sites across the Middle East if its own facilities are hit. Kuwaiti air defences destroyed several hostile drones, likely from Iran. Falling debris caused some damage. Fresh Iranian drones entered Kuwaiti airspace early on 1 August.

    continue briefing

  3. Friday 31 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hamas Accepts Disarmament Under New Gaza Plan

    In the 24 hours ending 31 July 07:30 UTC, Hamas agreed to disarm under a new Gaza plan.

    Donald Trump, the US president, announced the agreement covering Hamas and other armed groups. Hamas confirmed its acceptance, but Israel had not commented.

    The plan calls for disarmament and phased Israeli withdrawals from Gaza. An international force would work with Palestinian police under a new Palestinian government.

    The US naval blockade of Iran redirected 30 commercial ships. US forces boarded two ships and disabled two others that allegedly ignored orders.

    continue briefing

  4. Thursday 30 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Strikes Iran as Russian Missile Hits Poland

    In the 24 hours ending 30 July 07:30 UTC, US forces resumed large-scale attacks on Iran.

    US Central Command, the regional military command, struck dozens of Iranian Revolutionary Guard sites. The targets included command centres, weapons facilities, coastal defences, and maritime forces. The United States said it was responding to Iran’s missile attack on US forces in Jordan.

    Powerful explosions also struck Ahvaz in southwest Iran. Residents described the attacks as more intense than those in March.

    continue briefing

  5. Wednesday 29 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Ends Attack Pause With Missile Strike on US Forces

    In the 24 hours ending 29 July 07:30 UTC, Iran ended the pause in direct attacks. It launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US forces in Jordan. US defences intercepted every missile.

    US and Saudi forces then struck Iranian-backed militia sites in eastern Iraq. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had directed over 30 drone attacks during the previous 72 hours. The drones targeted Saudi infrastructure.

    Iran is expected to receive up to 400 Chinese air defence missiles within weeks. Soldiers can carry and fire these missiles from their shoulders.

    continue briefing

  6. Tuesday 28 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iranian drones strike northern Iraq as direct US attacks pause

    In the 24 hours ending 28 July 07:30 UTC, Iran launched a large drone attack on northern Iraq.

    The drones targeted Kurdish areas, including Erbil, Koya, and Soran. US forces shot down an Iranian attack drone over Erbil. Other drones were also intercepted.

    Direct US-Iran attacks remained paused. Donald Trump, the US president, said talks with Iran were continuing. Iran warned that it viewed the US naval blockade as an escalation.

    Ukraine launched a large drone attack across Russia. A logistics warehouse near Moscow was destroyed by fire.

    continue briefing

  7. Monday 27 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US and Iran Edge Toward Ceasefire as Ukraine Strikes Crimea

    In the 24 hours ending 27 July 07:30 UTC, US and Iranian forces moved closer to a ceasefire.

    Both sides passed 48 hours without reported attacks. Iran said talks continued through mediators. Donald Trump, the US president, said he was giving diplomacy a chance.

    Admiral Brad Cooper, the US regional military commander, advised ending the limited bombing campaign. He said strikes had badly reduced Iran’s ability to attack shipping. Most planned targets had already been hit. Attacking the remaining targets would require renewed major combat.

    continue briefing

  8. Sunday 26 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Pauses Wider Iran Strikes as Crimea Power Crisis Deepens

    In the 24 hours ending 26 July 07:30 UTC, the United States paused plans to expand strikes on Iran.

    Donald Trump, the US president, delayed larger attacks after military leaders warned about shrinking air defence missile stocks. US forces then passed a second straight night without striking Iran. Diplomacy and economic pressure remained possible.

    US forces kept the blockade of Iran in place. They have redirected 12 commercial ships, disabled two, and boarded two others.

    Ukrainian drones hit another major power station and substation in Russian-occupied Crimea. Earlier strikes also hit 19 energy sites across the peninsula.

    continue briefing

  9. Saturday 25 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Saudi-Houthi Fighting Spreads Across the Red Sea

    In the 24 hours ending 25 July 07:30 UTC, fighting spread between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis.

    The Houthis, Yemen’s armed group, struck the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan. Large smoke clouds rose over the site. It was their first attack on a Saudi refinery in four years.

    The Houthis also struck the Saudi tanker NCC MASA in the Red Sea. The ship suffered damage. It was the third Saudi vessel attacked this week.

    Saudi Arabia then struck communication sites in Hodeidah and on Kamaran Island in Yemen.

    continue briefing

  10. Friday 24 July 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Rejects Ceasefire as US Strikes Enter Thirteenth Night

    In the 24 hours ending 24 July 07:30 UTC, US forces attacked Iran for a thirteenth straight night.

    The strikes hit missile launchers, small boats, and targets across western Iran. Explosions were reported in more than twelve Iranian cities. The United States said the campaign aimed to protect commercial shipping.

    Iran rejected a temporary ceasefire proposed by Donald Trump, the US president. Ali al-Zaidi, Iraq’s prime minister, delivered the offer after visiting the White House. Iran refused because the proposal left control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

    continue briefing