Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Thursday 17 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Fed Raises Rates as Conflict Strains Oil and Air Defences

    In the 24 hours ending 17 September at 07:30 UTC, interest rates rose as conflict continued to strain oil supplies and air defences.

    The Federal Reserve raised its main rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4%. This was its first increase in more than three years. Most policymakers expected at least one more increase this year.

    Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve chair, said inflation remained too high. He also cited stronger economic growth and employment. Donald Trump, the US president, called the increase unfortunate but supported Warsh’s independence.

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  2. Wednesday 16 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Saudi Pipeline Damage Tightens Oil Supply as War Costs Rise

    In the 24 hours ending 16 September at 07:30 UTC, Saudi pipeline damage tightened oil supplies and raised fuel costs.

    Saudi Arabia suspended oil loading at Yanbu after severe damage to its East-West pipeline. The country also cancelled September cargoes for some European refiners. The disruption could cut exports by 2.5 million barrels daily for six weeks. More oil may now pass through the already restricted Strait of Hormuz.

    Brent crude rose 1.6% to $107.39 a barrel. US crude gained 2.1% to $103.51. Libyan pipeline closures also halted production at two oil fields.

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  3. Tuesday 15 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Oil Risks Rise as Hormuz Tensions Push US Yields Above 5%

    In the 24 hours ending 15 September at 07:30 UTC, oil risks grew as US war costs and borrowing rates climbed.

    Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline may remain mostly closed for three to five weeks. Partial service could return during repairs. The route can carry seven million barrels daily while avoiding Hormuz.

    US crude reached $104.95 a barrel, its highest level since mid-May. Qatar offered several October and November oil cargoes from ports inside Hormuz.

    US officials said oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were rising. Iran listed 77 vessels accused of breaking its passage rules. Tehran threatened future restrictions, fines, detention or seizure.

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  4. Monday 14 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Talks Stall as Gulf Oil Supply Risks Intensify

    In the 24 hours ending 14 September at 07:30 UTC, Gulf diplomacy stalled as oil supply risks grew.

    The planned Iran-Gulf meeting in Oman was postponed without a new date. Gulf states objected to parts of the proposed Hormuz agreement. Saudi Arabia submitted changes to the proposal.

    Oman’s energy minister still expected the Strait of Hormuz to reopen soon. However, US officials warned against expecting a quick agreement.

    Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline remained closed after several attacks. Repairs could take more than a month. Saudi export storage may last only five to seven days.

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  5. Sunday 13 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Ship Attacks Deepen Strain on Oman Talks

    In the 24 hours ending 13 September at 07:30 UTC, attacks continued near the Strait of Hormuz as diplomacy faced new problems.

    An unknown projectile struck a commercial ship crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Another attack hit an Iranian commercial vessel near Hengam and Qeshm islands. One person died, and three suffered injuries.

    Monday’s Iran-Gulf meeting in Oman appeared unlikely to produce a signed Hormuz agreement. Iran demanded the right to charge transit fees, but Oman opposed this. Bahrain said it would not attend.

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  6. Saturday 12 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Pipeline Strikes Deepen Middle East Shipping Risks

    In the 24 hours ending 12 September at 07:30 UTC, attacks further threatened oil supplies and shipping across the Middle East.

    Drones launched from Iraq hit several stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. The strikes shut the pipeline. Saudi Arabia said it would not retaliate for now and asked Iraq to investigate.

    Iraq said the drones came from Maysan Province and dismissed the regional operations commander. It also closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran.

    Houthi forces reached Dhubab and seized Perim Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Government forces withdrew from the island. Saudi Arabia then struck Houthi positions around Mocha, Dhubab and Perim Island.

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  7. Friday 11 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Middle East Shipping Threats Push Oil and Bond Yields Higher

    In the 24 hours ending 11 September at 07:30 UTC, attacks threatened two major Middle East shipping routes.

    Four projectiles struck two ships near Oman, close to the Strait of Hormuz entrance. One ship caught fire. The condition of the second ship remained unclear.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said America controlled the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed US forces destroyed 22 boats overnight. He also said the war could continue until after November’s US elections.

    Houthi forces strengthened their control of Mocha, a key Yemeni port city. They also advanced toward Dhubab and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Control there could further disrupt global shipping and Saudi oil exports.

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  8. Thursday 10 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Disruption Pushes Oil Above $100 as Strikes Spread

    In the 24 hours ending 10 September at 07:30 UTC, the US-Iran conflict further disrupted energy supplies and commercial shipping.

    Explosions hit several Iranian coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz. Their cause remained unclear. Donald Trump, the US president, said American attacks in the strait would continue. A US official later denied that America was conducting strikes there.

    The latest Iranian missile attack seriously damaged an American A-10 aircraft in Jordan. Eight F-15 fighters suffered light damage and returned to service. Several Black Hawk helicopters also suffered damage.

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  9. Wednesday 9 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran Fighting Escalates With Tanker Strikes and Missiles

    In the 24 hours ending 9 September at 07:30 UTC, fighting between Iran and the United States sharply escalated.

    The US military said it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers. Iran had tried twice to strike a US warship, but neither attack succeeded. American forces warned Iranian crews to leave the tankers before striking them.

    Iran then launched about 30 to 35 ballistic missiles, mainly targeting US forces in Jordan. Jordan said its defences engaged 20 missiles and intercepted 18. Two missiles landed in empty areas, and no deaths were reported. All American troops in Jordan were accounted for.

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  10. Tuesday 8 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Kyiv Strikes, Iran Oil Pressure and Record Copper Prices

    In the 24 hours ending 8 September at 07:30 UTC, Russia and Ukraine launched major overnight attacks.

    Russian missiles and drones caused heavy damage in Kyiv and nearby Bila Tserkva. At least two people died. Russia reportedly fired about two dozen ballistic missiles and over 30 cruise missiles. Ukrainian forces shot down several missiles.

    Ukraine also launched hundreds of drones and missiles into western Russia. A strike caused fires at the Saratov oil refinery, the region’s largest.

    Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, discussed winter support with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, US envoys. Talks covered air defence, energy aid and efforts to restart diplomacy. Zelensky believes Donald Trump, the US president, can push Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, toward negotiations.

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