Morning Jot
Prediction watch Open Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Wednesday 12 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed as US Missile Stocks Tighten

    In the 24 hours ending 12 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran rejected an early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Rezaei, Iran’s security council secretary, said closure would continue until Washington accepts Iranian conditions.

    Iran wants the war to end and frozen funds released. An Iran-Oman shipping agreement would remain separate from reopening the strait. Qatar said those talks had reached an advanced stage.

    About nine million barrels of oil now pass through Hormuz each day. This remains far below the level before the war. The US raised its 2026 Brent oil forecast from $82 to $87.

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  2. Tuesday 11 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Tensions Deepen as Rival Compensation Demands Grow

    In the 24 hours ending 11 August at 07:30 UTC, tensions over Hormuz deepened as both sides added new compensation demands. Donald Trump, the US president, said the United States could still launch a major escalation against Iran. He also said US forces had cleared mines throughout the strait.

    Trump ordered US negotiators to demand Iranian compensation in future talks. He cited Americans killed or injured by Iran and Iran-backed groups. Iran also demands compensation from Washington for damage caused during the war.

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  3. Monday 10 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Leans on Iran Blockade as Hormuz Talks Remain Stalled

    In the 24 hours ending 10 August at 07:30 UTC, US pressure on Iran focused on economic damage. Donald Trump, the US president, said he was avoiding major new military operations. He wants the naval blockade to weaken Iran’s economy.

    Trump could end the war without a nuclear agreement if Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Talks remain stalled over Iran’s demands. Tehran wants the blockade and war ended, sanctions removed and frozen funds released. It also seeks a US military withdrawal and payment for war damage.

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  4. Sunday 9 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Sets Broad Terms as Hormuz Shipping Talks Near Deal

    In the 24 hours ending 9 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran added broad conditions to any Hormuz reopening. These demands include ending sanctions and the naval blockade. Iran also wants frozen assets released and war damages paid. It demanded an end to regional fighting and threats against Iran.

    Iran said a shipping agreement with Oman was very close. However, the United States wants unrestricted commercial shipping before lifting its blockade. These opposing demands leave the final agreement uncertain.

    A vessel was struck and caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The crew put out the fire, and nobody was injured. The Houthis, an Iran-backed armed group in Yemen, claimed an attack on the Jazan refinery in Saudi Arabia. Firefighters tackled a blaze there.

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  5. Saturday 8 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Talks Drag On as Oil, War and Market Risks Build

    In the 24 hours ending 8 August at 07:30 UTC, Hormuz talks continued without final approval. Donald Trump, the US president, said negotiations were moving forward. Iran still sought control over ship entry, new fees and added restrictions. Brent crude rose above $83 a barrel.

    ADNOC, an oil and gas company, said attacks had hit 15 of its vessels. Three attacks happened this week. The attacks killed one crew member and injured 20. Higher insurance and freight costs have discouraged some ships from entering the Persian Gulf.

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  6. Friday 7 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Corridor Plans Advance as Gulf Tensions Persist

    In the 24 hours ending 7 August at 07:30 UTC, Iran and Oman prepared to announce a Hormuz shipping corridor. Donald Trump, the US president, said an Iran deal and an end to the war could come soon.

    An Iranian draft law would tighten traffic rules across the Strait of Hormuz. It would ban vessels linked to hostile states and impose fines reaching 20% of cargo value. Iran also sought fees worth 5% to 7% of cargo value.

    The proposed route would initially divide incoming and outgoing ships between Iranian and Omani waters. All traffic could later move into a central corridor. Two explosions also shook buildings near Qeshm Island, but authorities had not established their cause.

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  7. Thursday 6 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    Hormuz Draft Nears Approval as Ukraine Strikes Russia

    In the 24 hours ending 6 August at 07:30 UTC, a temporary Hormuz deal moved closer to final approval. Iranian and Omani negotiators completed a draft, but Iran’s supreme leader must approve it.

    The deal could create a shipping route lasting two to four months. Iran said the agreement alone would not make the Strait of Hormuz safe. Tehran also denied holding direct talks with the United States.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said talks were going well. He warned Iran of heavy attacks if it withdrew. Iran again threatened Gulf energy sites if US attacks resumed.

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  8. Wednesday 5 August 2026 12:10 UTC

    Hormuz Deal Nears as Shipping Risks Shadow the Strait

    In the period ending 5 August at 12:10 UTC, the United States, Iran and Oman moved closer to a temporary Hormuz deal. Draft terms would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days and support renewed nuclear talks. Donald Trump, the US president, said an agreement could come within 48 hours. However, no direct talks are booked, and no final agenda exists.

    Iran wants to control inbound traffic through Hormuz, while Oman would coordinate ships leaving the strait. Tehran also wants transit fees and power to stop vessels. Those demands remain the main dispute with Washington. Iran rejected claims of an immediate full reopening. It said alleged US violations could keep the strait closed. Iran may allow European teams to clear mines, but final security guarantees remain absent.

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  9. Tuesday 4 August 2026 08:00 UTC

    US-Iran Talks Stall as Hormuz Tensions Deepen

    In the 24 hours ending 4 August at 08:00 UTC, promised US-Iran talks did not begin, and planned US strikes remained paused.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said private discussions continued and Arab leaders had urged him not to attack Iran. He called this Tehran’s last chance to sign a deal. Iran denied any talks or planned delegations. It said only separate negotiations with Oman on shipping were continuing.

    Iran rejected a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before the wider conflict ends. It is seeking a temporary safe route through the strait with Oman. Trump said the United States controlled the waterway and could reopen it within a day. Forty-four commercial ships followed US blockade directions and changed course. Another cargo ship was hit by an unknown projectile near Oman.

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  10. Monday 3 August 2026 07:30 UTC

    US-Iran strikes paused ahead of Hormuz talks

    In the 24 hours ending 3 August at 07:30 UTC, planned US strikes on Iran remained paused.

    Donald Trump, the US president, said new talks with Iran would begin Monday afternoon. The talks will cover the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. Trump warned that US forces remained ready to strike if talks failed.

    Iran denied requesting the pause and said its forces remained ready. Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister, warned that any new attack would bring a similar response. Saudi Arabia backed diplomacy, but the United Arab Emirates favored stronger US pressure.

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