Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Sunday 27 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Russian Drone Enters Romanian Airspace Near Chilia Veche

    A Russian drone entered Romanian airspace near Chilia Veche overnight, Romania’s Defence Ministry said. Spanish F-18 fighters and a Romanian helicopter responded before radar contact was lost near Pardina. Latvia separately reported deliberate damage to surveillance cables and equipment on its border with Belarus. Poland and Lithuania were also preparing a plan to evacuate civilians from the three Baltic states through Lithuania in the event of war.

    Ukraine said Russia plans to spend $12 billion next year producing jet-powered drones and loitering munitions. It said Russia launched more than 2,730 jet-powered Shahed drones in September, of which Ukrainian forces shot down or suppressed more than 1,500—an interception rate of 55%. Ukraine put its success rate against regular Shaheds above 90%.

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  2. Saturday 26 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Rejects Iran Ceasefire and Expects Strikes to Resume

    Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposed seven-day ceasefire and told aides he expected to resume US strikes after the November midterm elections, according to an account of internal discussions. Iran had offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on day six and begin negotiations the next day. Indirect contacts continue, but Washington intends to maintain its blockade and economic pressure. Iran also said it would make no concessions on its nuclear programme. Oil prices still fell on hopes of a truce, with Brent dropping about $3 a barrel.

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  3. Friday 25 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US and Iran Discuss Phased Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

    US and Iranian negotiators are discussing a phased agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade. About 60 commercial vessels crossed on Wednesday, the highest daily crude volume since early July; roughly 40 coordinated with the US military for protection. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline was building crude volumes, but tanker loading at Yanbu had not resumed. After the Houthis said they attacked Aramco facilities there, France announced it would deploy soldiers, radars and air-defence systems to protect the oil-export hub.

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  4. Thursday 24 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Attacks India-Bound Ship in Strait of Hormuz

    Iranian forces attacked the MV Cape Dao in the Strait of Hormuz, killing Indian crew member Suraj Yadav. At least two projectiles struck the accommodation deck and engine-room hull, setting the India-bound bulk carrier ablaze and forcing its abandonment. The ship carried 28 people, including 20 Indian crew. Iran’s security chief said the strait would remain closed unless Washington accepted seven conditions, while President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran remained committed to diplomacy but would not yield to military pressure.

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  5. Wednesday 23 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US and Iran Hold First Direct Talks Since Framework Collapsed

    US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian officials at the UN, in what Iranian media called the first direct talks since an earlier negotiating framework collapsed. Donald Trump described the meeting as productive. Iran maintained that Washington must lift its shipping blockade, release frozen Iranian assets and end attacks on allied groups before it reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices fell on claims that reopening could happen within seven days, although Iranian sources disputed that timetable.

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  6. Tuesday 22 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Two More Tankers Struck in Strait of Hormuz

    Two more tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz. An unknown projectile hit an inbound vessel in a US-protected lane, slightly injuring two crew members; the ship continued under its own power. An outbound liquefied petroleum gas tanker was also hit. Weekend traffic fell to 17 commodity-vessel crossings, compared with about 125 large commercial vessels a day before the war. Daily tanker rates from the Gulf to China have nearly quintupled to $1.035 million.

    Saudi Arabia nevertheless increased crude shipments through Hormuz to about 2.9 million barrels a day, up from 700,000 in August. Aramco loaded 14 million barrels onto seven large tankers on Sunday. Brent crude fell 2.6% to $101.18 as supply fears eased.

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  7. Monday 21 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Trump Weighs Further US Action or a Deal With Iran

    Donald Trump said “very big things” could happen as he weighed further military action, economic pressure or a deal with Iran. He said he would probably meet Iran’s president at the UN General Assembly. Iran’s military claimed America had decided to resume attacks, but offered no evidence. It threatened unrestricted strikes on US bases and warned that regional states supporting an attack would become parties to the conflict. US-Iran negotiations continued without notable progress.

    Trump decided against joining Saudi Arabia’s war with the Houthis after considering strikes last week, according to accounts citing broad opposition within his team. Türkiye offered to meet Saudi military needs under its joint defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The US State Department now requires government employees to obtain special permission before visiting the Saudi cities of Taif and Yanbu.

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  8. Sunday 20 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Houthi Attacks Put Saudi Arabia and US Embassies on Alert

    The Houthis said they attacked an Aramco facility in Yanbu and would keep targeting Saudi military buildups until the blockade ends. A separate account said they hit fuel storage at Riyadh International Airport. Saudi aircraft struck Houthi positions near Ta’izz in Yemen. The United States issued security warnings across nine Middle Eastern countries, telling Americans to prepare for cancelled flights and closed airspace. Iran said Qatar had delivered Tehran’s conditions for ending the war to Washington and that it awaited Donald Trump’s response.

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  9. Saturday 19 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Iran War Costs Reach $43.6 Billion

    In the 24 hours ending 19 September at 07:30 UTC, US war costs grew as oil disruption and regional attacks continued.

    A Pentagon breakdown put the Iran war cost at $43.6 billion through 3 September. Munitions accounted for $28.1 billion. More than 50,000 troops supported the mission. The total excludes repairs to damaged facilities, including the US naval base in Bahrain. Repair costs could add tens of billions of dollars.

    The Pentagon’s public database listed 18 US military deaths since the war began. The database did not include every death, but no corrected total was available. Donald Trump, the US president, said the war would end soon.

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  10. Friday 18 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Iran Tensions Rise as US Weighs Attacks and Saudi Arms Sale

    In the 24 hours ending 18 September at 07:30 UTC, Iran tensions deepened as America considered wider attacks and major arms sales.

    Donald Trump, the US president, neared a decision on resuming large-scale US attacks on Iran. Iran claimed it had recently destroyed another American MQ-9 drone over Qeshm Island.

    US forces have redirected 104 commercial vessels since resuming their blockade of Iran. Restrictions remain on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.

    UN-backed experts found reasonable grounds that America committed war crimes during two February strikes in Iran. One strike hit a school in Minab and killed more than 150 people, including many children.

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