Morning Jot
Prediction watch Loss Deadline 23 September 2026

Will US troops enter Iran by 23 September?

Robert Pape predicts that US troops will carry out a ground operation on Iranian territory by 23 September 2026.

  1. Wednesday 7 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    Russian Strikes Kill Five and Wreck Homes Across Ukraine

    Russian missile and drone strikes hit several Ukrainian cities. In Pryluky, a five-storey apartment building was destroyed, killing at least five people and injuring 26, including five children. People may remain beneath the rubble. Strikes also damaged four high-rises in Kremenchuk, five apartment buildings in Dnipro and a high-rise in Zaporizhzhia. Separately, last week’s Ukrainian drone attack forced the Volgograd refinery, which handles about 5% of Russia’s refining capacity, to shut completely.

    Multiple sources said Syria is discussing joining the war against Yemen’s Houthis. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa visited Saudi Arabia during the discussions. The Houthis separately claimed they shot down a Saudi CH-4B combat drone over Yemen’s Al-Jawf province.

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  2. Tuesday 6 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    Yemeni Forces Push Toward Bab al-Mandeb Strait

    Yemeni government-aligned forces said they captured Mocha, Wahijah and Dhubab airport as their new offensive pushed towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Witnesses said Houthi fighters left some positions near Mocha, but the Houthis denied losing the coast and claimed gains near Taizz. More than 200 US analysts are working in Saudi command centres to help select targets, while the US is refuelling Saudi patrol aircraft. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan also agreed to activate their joint defence pact and rapidly deploy forces and equipment to Saudi Arabia.

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  3. Monday 5 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    Yemen Offensive Begins as Houthis Cut Taizz Supply Route

    Yemen’s government council announced a renewed offensive against the Houthis, backed by full operational support from the Saudi-led coalition. A field report said Houthi forces captured the Al-Ahad al-Shou’bah junction, severing the government’s last supply route into Taizz. Government troops could now leave only through mountain routes and would have to abandon heavy equipment. Separately, a tanker 60 nautical miles south of Al Mukha reported several nearby explosions; its crew was safe.

    Germany announced more than €1.3 billion in new weapons and winter energy support for Ukraine. During Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Kyiv, German and Ukrainian organisations also signed 15 agreements worth more than €8.5 billion, covering joint production, procurement and industrial projects. Germany will provide 2,000 jointly produced Bars interceptor drones, which Ukraine says have performed better than its other interceptors. The two countries have also begun establishing drone units in Germany using Ukrainian training and expertise.

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  4. Sunday 4 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    Ukraine Peace Talks Expand to Lukoil Oil Asset Deal

    US-Russia talks on ending the Ukraine war have expanded to a possible multibillion-dollar deal involving Lukoil’s global oil assets. The proposal would require approval from Washington and the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin raised it during a September meeting with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.

    The co-pilot accused of attacking the captain of Flydubai Flight 1073 told investigators that he intended to crash the aircraft in Israel, ABC reported. Investigators are examining how Hamam al-Hamami, 29, was cleared to join Flydubai after Oman Air suspended him in 2024 when extremist material was found in his possession. An Israeli team is investigating him in the UAE.

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  5. Saturday 3 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    G7 to Release 100 Million Barrels From Emergency Reserves

    The G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves over four months. A large share of the diesel will enter the market in the first 20 days. Members also agreed to delay refinery maintenance where possible and avoid energy-export restrictions. Donald Trump said the US would not ban diesel exports. Saudi Arabia was meanwhile pumping close to 6 million barrels a day through its East-West pipeline, according to an industry assessment.

    The US added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the forecast of 84,000, while unemployment rose to 4.2%. Wage growth slowed to 3.02% from a year earlier. Revised figures cut the previous two months’ combined employment growth by 60,000, including a revised loss of 10,000 jobs in July. Markets raised the estimated chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October to 85%.

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  6. Friday 2 October 2026 07:30 UTC

    US Prepares Third Carrier and More Troops for Middle East

    The US is preparing to send a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 more troops to the Middle East, according to reports citing US officials. One official said three carriers and two amphibious groups would be positioned around Iran by the end of November. Iran privately offered to restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed sites in exchange for sanctions relief, Bloomberg reported. Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s proposed seven-day ceasefire and offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as insufficient, while leaving open further US bombing after the November elections. Washington also imposed sanctions on Iranian rail and carmaking groups.

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  7. Thursday 1 October 2026 08:00 UTC

    US Ends 12-Year Military Mission Against Islamic State in Iraq

    The US and its partners formally ended the 12-year military mission against Islamic State in Iraq and withdrew about 1,500 personnel from Erbil Air Base. Iraqi forces, including the Kurdish Peshmerga, now assume responsibility for remaining threats. The US presence will shift to a bilateral defence relationship with Iraq.

    A renewed Russian assault involving nearly 190 drones and missiles targeted energy infrastructure in Kyiv and other regions. Ukraine said attacks disrupted electricity and water, damaged homes and killed seven people, including a child. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said 24 people were injured and asked Norway and Finland for stronger air defences and help keeping Ukraine’s F-16 fleet operational. Ukraine also said Operation Vivaldi had regained more than 125 square kilometres around Lyman.

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  8. Wednesday 30 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Pentagon Database Breach Exposes Millions of Records

    A breach of a Pentagon personnel database exposed Social Security numbers and employment details for 2.76 million living people and 294,000 dead people, a US defence official said. Unauthorised access lasted from October 2025 until officials found and fixed the weakness in July 2026. The database covers military personnel, civilian staff, contractors, veterans, retirees and relatives.

    A tanker believed to be Kuwaiti-owned was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a delayed report received by Britain’s maritime security agency. The strike caused a fire, but the crew was safe and no environmental damage was reported. Iran’s rial meanwhile fell to a record low, exceeding 2.5 million to the US dollar. Talks through Qatari and Pakistani mediators remained focused on reopening the strait, with Iran saying its conditions had not changed.

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  9. Tuesday 29 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Saudi Arabia Restarts Oil Exports Through East-West Pipeline

    Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports through its East-West Pipeline after repairing damage from drone strikes earlier in September. Aramco restarted tanker loading at Yanbu, with the pipeline carrying about 3.5 million barrels a day. This restores a major export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. A Houthi military source separately threatened Saudi bridges, including in Riyadh, in response to Saudi strikes on bridges in Yemen.

    US-Iran talks produced conflicting accounts. Al Hadath said Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief, but Donald Trump said he had offered “nothing”. A US official described indirect talks as positive, while other accounts said New York negotiations made limited progress and left nuclear concessions and Hormuz unresolved. Iranian officials saw little chance of an agreement before the November 3 US midterm elections. Lower expectations helped push Brent crude above $106 a barrel.

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  10. Monday 28 September 2026 07:30 UTC

    Five Arrested Near RAF Fairford in Terror Investigation

    British police arrested five men near RAF Fairford, a UK base used by US bombers, on suspicion of terrorism and explosives offences. Officers found three suspicious vans about two miles from the base. Authorities evacuated homes, locked down the base and sent Army bomb-disposal teams to examine or defuse suspected explosives. A farmer said masked men fled towards the base before police detained them within 25 minutes. Counterterrorism officers are examining possible Iranian, Russian and Islamist links, but officials said the investigation remained at an early stage and named no responsible actor.

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